The Misleading Authority of Precision

"There is no point in being precise when you don't know what you're talking about.” —John Tukey

Numbers can be intimidating. Precise numbers can be overwhelming. A bunch of significant digits, especially when there are a few of them after the decimal point? Man, that is lot to think about!

I do not know if the great statistician actually said the quote above, and there’s not a lot of evidence for it on the Internet. But @DataSciFact passed it along, so I accept it. Yeah, the great John Tukey said that there are far more important things than precision.

To me, that means that that validity is far more important than reliability. Optimizing measures of reliability is pointless if you are not measuring the right thing. If you do not know what you are measuring, then the quantitative tools are meaningless. 

Psychometrics is about the quantified parts of measurement. Numbers after the decimal point, and numeric thresholds. It is a set of tools—and disciplinary values—but it is not the point. No amount of reliability can make of for a test that is measuring the wrong thing—and especially a test that no one really knows what it is measuring.

If the experts look at your items or your test and tell you it does not measure the construct as they understand it—or as it is formally defined by your client—then what are you doing? What is the point of any of the reliability or psychometric work?

If John Tukey can realize that precision is not enough, we all should. If we do not know what a test measures and what the scores mean, none of the precision in reporting or technical document has a point.